Identification of Convective and Stratiform Clouds Based on the Improved DBSCAN Clustering Algorithm     

Yuanyuan ZUO  Zhiqun HU  Shujie YUAN  Jiafeng ZHENG  Xiaoyan YIN  Boyong LI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(12):2203-2212

A convective and stratiform cloud classification method for weather radar is proposed based on the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. To identify convective and stratiform clouds in different developmental phases, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) models are proposed by applying reflectivity factors at 0.5° and at 0.5°, 1.5°, and 2.4° elevation angles, respectively. According to the thresholds of the algorithm, which include echo intensity, the echo top height of 35 dBZ (ET), density threshold, and ε neighborhood, cloud clusters can be marked into four types: deep-convective cloud (DCC), shallow-convective cloud (SCC), hybrid convective-stratiform cloud (HCS), and stratiform cloud (SFC) types. Each cloud cluster type is further identified as a core area and boundary area, which can provide more abundant cloud structure information. The algorithm is verified using the volume scan data observed with new-generation S-band weather radars in Nanjing, Xuzhou, and Qingdao. The results show that cloud clusters can be intuitively identified as core and boundary points, which change in area continuously during the process of convective evolution, by the improved DBSCAN algorithm. Therefore, the occurrence and disappearance of convective weather can be estimated in advance by observing the changes of the classification. Because density thresholds are different and multiple elevations are utilized in the 3D model, the identified echo types and areas are dissimilar between the 2D and 3D models. The 3D model identifies larger convective and stratiform clouds than the 2D model. However, the developing convective clouds of small areas at lower heights cannot be identified with the 3D model because they are covered by thick stratiform clouds. In addition, the 3D model can avoid the influence of the melting layer and better suggest convective clouds in the developmental stage.  相似文献   

Box-Cox正态转换在长江子流域极端降水气候事件判定中的应用     

吴瑶  杜良敏  刘长征  张俊 《湖北气象》2022,41(1):94-100

利用1961-2017年长江流域700个气象站点逐月降水资料计算长江流域9个子流域面雨量,采用基于Box-Cox正态分布转换后的百分位法对长江流域不同时间长度的极端降水气候事件阈值进行界定。结果表明,在数据序列长度发生变化的情况下,面雨量序列经Box-Cox正态转换后,计算得到的极端降水气候事件阈值的变化相较于常规百分位法明显减小,具有更为稳健的特性,从而使得相应极端降水气候事件个例的挑选更为稳定。根据该方法得到的阈值,对2018年汛期(6-8月)长江各子流域极端降水气候事件进行判定,岷沱江流域发生了极端多雨气候事件,而长江干流重庆-宜昌段、汉江及中游干流区间发生了极端少雨气候事件。  相似文献   

基于自动气象站的深圳近10年城市气候变化特征研究:2011—2020年          下载免费PDF全文

何钰清  李磊  张丽  杨红龙 《热带气象学报》2022,38(6):870-879

利用广东省深圳市30个自动气象站观测数据对深圳市近10年的气候变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:（1）深圳市2011—2020年的平均气温增长率约1.47 ℃/(10 a),比上一个10年显著增加,气候变暖并未停滞;（2）受城市化的影响,深圳市气温日较差在较大范围内呈减小趋势,但在少数地区却反常地呈现了上升趋势;（3）深圳的地面风速总体呈下降趋势,其中发达地区风速下降更快;（4）2011—2020年深圳市的平均相对湿度呈上升趋势,最高每年增长1.33%;（5）统计深圳各区不同时次的极端降雨量数据可以发现,未发展地区的极端降雨量增速较大,年总降水量的增长率也较高,增长率最高为42.41 mm/a,而其他地区的6 h以内的滑动降水量极大值均呈下降趋势;（6）利用多个自动气象站长时间序列数据,可以对深圳局地气候变化特征进行更加精细化的分析,这对国家基本站而言是一种有益的补充,有助于更加深刻地发掘城市化与气候变化的关系。   相似文献   

Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guwei ZHANG  Gang ZENG  Xiaoye YANG  Zhihong JIANG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):253-267

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.  相似文献   

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction     

Huan WU  Xiaomeng LI  Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN  Lorenzo ALFIERI  Yun CHEN  Hui XU  Zhifang WU  Hong LU  Yamin HU  Qiang ZHU  Zhijun HUANG  Weitian CHEN  Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.  相似文献   

概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用     

齐亚杰  严中伟  钱诚 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(2):151-161

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。  相似文献   

关于复合型极端事件的新认识和启示          下载免费PDF全文

余荣  翟盘茂 《大气科学学报》2021,44(5):645-649

近年来,极端天气气候事件频繁发生,且常常表现为多种事件交织形成的复合型极端事件。为了更好地认识复合型极端事件,IPCC AR6基于现有的新证据评估了复合型极端事件的最新研究成果,并取得一些新认识：扩展了有关复合型极端事件的定义,重点围绕高温干旱复合型极端事件、复合洪水和野火,评估了复合型极端事件的变化特征,探讨了复合型极端事件多因子之间的依赖性,对人类活动的影响进行了归因分析并给出了未来可能的变化。这些评估结果丰富了对复合型极端事件的基本认识。但根据现有的评估可以发现,目前在复合型极端事件发生发展机理认识方面还存在不足;同时,未来仍需进一步完善跨学科跨部门跨区域研究,加强对复合型极端事件形成机理、预估及其对生态系统,经济社会影响风险的评估,提高对区域气候变化的适应能力。  相似文献   

基于Logistic方法构建的中国降雪判定方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

林文青  陈活泼 《大气科学学报》2022,45(6):863-878

基于中国区域逐日降雪、降水、气温、相对湿度、气压和风速等观测数据,构建了中国区域的Logistic降雪判定方法,并对该方法和当前广泛应用的其他降雪判定方法在中国区域的适用性展开对比研究。结果表明,单温度阈值法和S曲线法对[-3,4] ℃气温区间内的降雪模拟不确定性相对较大。比较而言,Logistic拟合的系列方法成功率更高,对中国不同区域降雪识别也更为稳健,尤其是对青藏高原地区降雪事件的识别效果明显优于其他方法。在Logistic方法中,温度和相对湿度对降雪判定起决定作用,而气压和风速的影响相对较小。Logistic湿球温度方案(LogT_w)和气温+相对湿度方案(LogT_aH_R)均能很好地再现降雪量的空间分布和年际变化特征,且相应偏差均小于其他方法;总体上,这两种方案对降雪量识别效果差别不大。因此,可使用LogT_w方案或LogT_aH_R方案对中国区域降雪事件进行判别,尤其是对模式中降雪事件的识别。  相似文献   

IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估     

张通  俞永强  效存德  华莉娟  闫展 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(1):12-18

IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。  相似文献   

基于北斗的自动气象站报文传输方案设计     

王明辉  雷卫延  黄海王莹  黄飞龙 《气象科技》2019,47(6):900-904

针对北斗卫星下行通信受4G和WIFI信号带内干扰导致传输成功率低的情况,设计了基于增加传输次数来降低误码率的自动气象站报文北斗传输方案。首次提出并建成用于传输自动气象站报文的双北斗指挥机用户群,根据北斗用户机的传输能力设计专用的气象报文编码格式,利用冗余频度开展报文重发,实现单个时次报文的4次重复接收,稳定地保证了较高的传输成功率。方案同时实现了观测报文1min内到达预报员桌面,在稳定性和时效性上均取得了突破。  相似文献